We have betting picks for Super Bowl LV (the 55th Super Bowl), which sees the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tampa.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are vying for back-to-back Super Bowl wins, which is an incredible feat for such a young team. However, he must get past the GOAT Tom Brady.
The six-time Super Bowl winner showed why he’s the best in the game last week, and it sets it up for an incredible game on Sunday, February 7.
Which team comes out ahead when it’s all said and done? We preview Super Bowl LV, and add our best value picks and predictions for the big game.
NFL Super Bowl LV Preview
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Super Bowl Preview
The Chiefs find themselves back in the Super Bowl after scoring a win over San Francisco last season.
It hasn’t been as easy this season, especially when Patrick Mahomes was knocked out in the Divisional Championship game. However, he returned last week and looked back to his best against the Buffalo Bills.
Kansas City owns one of the best offensive teams in the NFL, which is spearheaded by both Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill. The speed shown by Hill last week was incredible, and he has the potential to break open the game at any time.
Tight-end Travis Kelce also had a good game. He has been the best tight-end in the NFL this season, and we don’t expect that to change in the Super Bowl. He has the clear advantage over Rob Gronkowski, who was targeted only once last week.
The Chiefs have an explosive offence and they will test the Tampa Bay defense, but the defence isn’t as good. It ranks 10th overall in the NFL, and it’s particularly poor in the red zone.
Kansas City is one of the best teams in keeping opposition out of the red zone, but once they get there, it’s not good reading. Teams score at a high rate from the 20-yard line, so the defence will need to be better against Tom Brady.
Tampa Bay didn’t look like a legitimate Super Bowl contender for most of the season, but never rule out Tom Brady. He has the ability to take a team all the way, as he showed when winning with New England.
The win over Green Bay was an incredible team effort, and Brady never looked pressured. His offensive line helps, so he has plenty of time in the pocket.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin warmed into the game in the second half, and they produced some amazing catches. However, the most important aspect for TB could be the running game.
Kansas City has a poor run defence, and Tampa Bay has two quality RB’s at its disposal. Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones could have a field day, so the Super Bowl could be a tactical affair.
Super Bowl LV Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Betting Pick
Bookmakers have Kansas City the $1.55 favourites for Super Bowl LV, with Tampa Bay priced at $2.47.
Betting against Tom Brady has never been a wise move in the Super Bowl, so we wouldn’t be surprised to see strong money come for the Buccaneers over the next week.
It’s equally as tough to bet against Patrick Mahomes and the explosive Chiefs offence. However, we are picking Tampa Bay to come out ahead in a thrilling game.
The experience is on the side of the Buccaneers, and although many of the Buccs’ players haven’t been in this position, their star players have. Tom Brady, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski have played well in the biggest games in the past.
Kansas City has experience after winning last season, but the Buccs are a different team than the 49ers. For that reason, we’re happy to take the $2.47 for a team with Brady as the quarterback.
Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win @ $2.47
Super Bowl LV First Touchdown Scorer Picks
There are many quality players to choose from in the First Touchdown Scorer market, so we look at one player from each team.
The obvious pick for the Buccaneers is Mike Evans, and he’s the $10 favourite. However, we believe Tampa Bay will try to establish a running game, which leads us to Leonard Fournette.
He scored a touchdown in the Conference Championship against Green Bay, and his confidence is steadily increasing since Tom Brady came to town.
If the Buccaneers get down into the red zone, they are poor against the run. Tampa Bay will know this, so expect a heavy dose of Fournette, who is paying $11 to score the first touchdown.
Kansas City has a plethora of touchdown scoring options. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are $7.50 favourites, but we’re going with Patrick Mahomes.
He loves making plays for himself in the red zone, and it often catches the opposition off guard. If the Chiefs get inside the five-yard line, expect some play-action involving Mahomes, and his odds are attractive.
Mahomes is paying $21 to score the first touchdown, which is value worth taking.
The only other player we would consider backing is Chris Godwin. The Buccaneers’ receiver had a few early drops in the Conference Championship, so he will be hellbent on making up for those drops.
Godwin pays $12 with bookmakers, so put him in selections as a saver bet.
After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA – English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.
Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. Coupled with his love of US sport, Daryl’s picks have been featured on various websites around the world and viewed by millions of readers. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 – with a focus on horse racing, NBA, NFL, and college sports. When he’s not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.