The 400m freestyle is one of the toughest swimming events at the Olympics and the men’s race is wide open this year.
Two Australians head the market and it should be one of the most exciting races in the pool in Tokyo.
We have sorted through the form of every swimmer to find the best value bets for the Men’s 400m Freestyle.
Men’s 400m Freestyle Predictions
To Win Gold – Elijah Winnington
Winning is in the 21-year-old’s name and he’s the current favourite to bring home gold to Australia.
The swimmer from Gold Coast qualified first for Australia in the recent trials, and although he swims over all distances, he’s best at the 400m freestyle.
Elijah Winnington won gold at the 2018 Commonwealth Games in the 4x200m relay event before winning the 400m freestyle as a solo swimmer at the 2019 Australian Swimming Championships.
He would retain his title in 2021 and that’s ideal form coming into the Olympics. Our only worry is his lack of experience on the global stage, but Winnington has a bright future and Australia knows how to produce top-level swimmers.
The power swimmer is the current $2 favourite to win gold with bookmakers. He is $1.10 to win gold or silver, so bookmakers are supremely confident Winnington can get the job done.
We’re happy with the $2 and he looks like a great bet for swimming punters.
Bet: Elijah Winnington @ $2
To Win Silver – Jack McLoughlin
We are expecting an Australian quinella in an event that has been dominated by Australians over the years.
Mack Horton won in Rio in 2016 and McLoughlin could be the next swimming star for Australia. The 26-year-old has a good pedigree and due to his experience, he shouldn’t be overlooked as a gold medal chance.
McLoughlin won silver at the Commonwealth Games and also gold in the 1500m freestyle, so he’s a distance swimmer who won’t get tired.
He also won gold at the 2018 Pan Pacific Games in Tokyo, so there is little wrong with that form and he’s performing at a high level on the world stage.
Punters get $4 for McLoughlin to win gold, but we like his chances to win silver. Winnington will be tough to beat on recent form and punters get $3.50 for McLoughlin to finish second, which are generous odds.
He is paying $1.87 to win gold or silver, which is a solid betting option as well. We think his experience puts him above many of his rivals and we wouldn’t be having a 400m freestyle bet without including Jack McLoughlin.
Bet: Jack McLoughlin @ $3.50
To Win Bronze – Kieran Smith
Kieran Smith is a new name in the world of swimming and although he’s still in college, he could make his mark in the professional ranks.
The University of Florida alumni set the NCAA record over 500m at the 2020 SEC Championships, so he clearly has ability and he could be the dark horse in this event.
His time of 3:44.86 at the U.S. Olympic Trials was the eight fastest time in the world this year and he followed it up with the eighth fastest 200m time, only three seconds behind Michael Phelps’ record.
There is confidence surrounding Kieran Smith and bookmakers aren’t respecting his ability. He is paying $9 to win bronze, which is excellent value for a swimmer who is going from strength-to-strength.
Bet: Kieran Smith @ $9
After graduating from the University of Auckland (BA – English), Daryl was thrown into the world of sports and horse racing journalism.
Having worked as a racing journalist for two years, he decided to move into the online world of horse racing and sports writing. Coupled with his love of US sport, Daryl’s picks have been featured on various websites around the world and viewed by millions of readers. After years of honing his craft, Daryl became a professional punter in 2009 – with a focus on horse racing, NBA, NFL, and college sports. When he’s not working, Daryl tries to avoid making bogeys on the golf course.