This is a market that a lot of newer UFC bettors find confusing because the rules around how rounds are scored for betting purposes are not always obvious.
We have had a few bets graded differently to what we expected over the years so here is how it actually works.
What the bet is
An over/under rounds bet in the UFC is where you predict whether the fight will last longer or shorter than a certain number of rounds.
The sportsbook sets a line, usually something like 1.5 rounds or 2.5 rounds for a three round fight, and you bet on whether the fight goes over or under that number.
If the line is 2.5 rounds and you bet the over, you need the fight to get past the halfway point of the third round for your bet to win.
If the fight ends by knockout or submission in the first or second round, the under cashes.
If it goes to a decision, the over cashes because the fight went the full distance.
The halfway point rule
This is the part that trips people up and we learned it the hard way ourselves.
The halfway point of each round is the 2:30 mark because UFC rounds are five minutes long.
So if the line is 1.5 rounds, the fight needs to get past 2:30 of the second round for the over to win.
If there is a stoppage at 2:15 of the second round that is under 1.5. If the stoppage comes at 2:45 of the second round that is over 1.5.
We had a bet a while back where we took over 1.5 rounds and the fight got stopped at what felt like the middle of the second round.
We thought we had won but the stoppage was at 2:22 which was before the halfway mark so it graded as under. Those ten seconds cost us the bet!
Three round fights vs five round fights
Regular UFC fights are three rounds and the over/under line is usually set at 1.5 or 2.5 rounds.
Title fights and main events are five rounds and you will typically see the line set at 2.5, 3.5, or 4.5 rounds.
The same halfway point rule applies regardless of how many rounds the fight is scheduled for.
What happens if it goes to a decision?
If a fight goes the full distance and ends in a decision then the over wins regardless of where the line was set.
A three round fight that goes to the judges scorecards lasted all three rounds.
A five round title fight that goes to decision lasted all five.
Over cashes in both cases.
How we use this market
We like over/under rounds for fights where we have a strong opinion on how the fight plays out but do not necessarily want to pick a winner.
If we think both fighters are durable and the fight is going to be a grinding three round war we will take the over without needing to figure out who actually gets the nod on the cards.
It takes the guesswork out of close fights which is where we have found the most value in this market.
