If you have ever been watching a game where your spread bet looked completely dead and then somehow it cashed in the final two minutes, you have experienced the joy of a backdoor cover.
And if you have been on the other side of one you already know it is the worst feeling in sports betting. We have been on both sides more times than we can count.
What it means
You know when a game is basically over and one team is up by three touchdowns and then the losing team scores a couple of times right at the end when nobody on defense is really trying anymore?
The final score looks close but the game was never close.
A backdoor cover is when that late meaningless scoring accidentally pushes the result past the point spread and cashes a bet that had no business winning.
The team that covered was never in the game. They just happened to score enough garbage time points to sneak past the number.
The one we still think about
We had a bet last NFL season where we took an underdog at +9.5 and they were getting destroyed 31-10 heading into the fourth quarter.
We had already written it off. Then the other team pulled their starters, the backup quarterback gave up a couple of soft drives, and our team scored two garbage time touchdowns to make it 31-24.
We covered the 9.5 by half a point and it felt like stealing. The team we backed never had a chance of winning that game but our bet cashed because of meaningless late scoring.
Now imagine being the person on the other side of that who had the favorite at -9.5. They were up 21 points with ten minutes left and lost their bet because of two touchdowns that had zero impact on who won the game.
That is what makes backdoor covers so brutal.
Where you see it the most
NFL on Sundays. Every single week.
A team goes up big in the third quarter, the coach switches to prevent defense to protect the lead, and the other team marches down the field twice against guys who are basically just trying not to get hurt.
We had three bets last season that we thought were dead losses heading into the fourth quarter and all three ended up covering because of exactly this situation.
NBA is the same deal late in blowouts.
Bench players come in and the team that is down makes a little run that means absolutely nothing for the game but everything for anyone holding a spread ticket.
Can you game it?
Honestly not really. We have tried. The closest thing to a pattern we have found is that NFL teams running prevent defense in the fourth quarter give up points at a ridiculous rate.
So if you are taking a big underdog on the spread and the game gets out of hand early your bet is not necessarily dead as long as the other team sits on their lead and plays soft.
But building an actual system around backdoor covers is tough because you are basically betting on randomness.
